European energy prices going through the roof

Bill Masen - March 7, 2022

News

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10585147/Oil-price-surges-125-barrel-highest-level-2008.html

Gas price rockets leaving billpayers facing £5,000 price capThe price of gas has gone through the roof to record levels today as the West prepares to boycott Russia’s fossil fuels, which raises $1billion-a-day for Vladimir Putin’s war chest.

With global markets in turmoil, UK wholesale gas hit 800 pence per therm today – up from 39p a year ago – amid claims that the monthly price cap planned for October 1 could have to be raised to £5,000-a-year. 

To clarify before the Covid Pandemic and the Ukranian conflict the average Brit was paying £1250 ($1645) a year of electricity and gas.  A month or so ago that rose to over £1900 ($ 2500) a year, and is definately going to hit £3000 ($ 3900) a year at the end of October 22.   The way these issues are affecting energy prices it is now forecast to rise to between  £4000 and £5000 ( $ 5260 –  $ 6500) a year up from £1250.

Millions are going to have a choice soon, HEAT or EAT but not both.

I cannot possibly emphasize enough that if you can go OFF GRID on heat and Light, even partially (like getting a wood stove)  you REALLY should.

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I was looking for just this thread Bill, thanks.

To second Bill’s advise, understand the US is now in the same boat as the UK and rest of the world fossils-wise. We are fully exposed to the world price more than we’ve been in a while because we are exporting oil & gas like there is no tomorrow. Price at the pump is at $4/gal and if the US boycotts it is going up from there to whatever price it takes to reduce demand down to meet lower available production.

You know how high gasoline price would have to go to make you cut back 10%, that’ how much of the world’s oil RU exports and how high price will go. I guarantee it will be a price hike of way more than 10%.

Your natural gas and electric bill will be rising soon as well. They will rise as high as it takes for a sufficient number of people to turn down the thermostat so demand meets supply. Whatever you can do today to prudently prepare for higher food and fuel costs you should do.

We’re going to put the hard times budget into effect, top off supplies and make some investments sooner than planned. 

I personally have more buckets, mylar bags and O2 absorbers on the way to pack in a new order of grain, beans, rice from Azure Standard.  We are going in about an hour to buy a few cans to fill up the pantry. We aren’t sweeping the store shelves, just topping off.

I also have ordered an all-in-one PV charge controller/inverter and 10 more solar panels. also to arrive soon to provide for a temporary system should the need arise. It is ahead of schedule but…

I’m going to talk to the neighbor about turning his back lot into a a little share-crop garden, about 100 x 50. It’s coming up on potato planting time here.

Forget the BOB and the flint and steel. Time to hunker down and be frugal.

 

A follow on article or two in the UK reports on how the cost of Grain and Fertiliser along with animal feedstock is likely to TRIPLE in coming months .  I agree US food and fuel prices will follow the UK / EU in coming months.

 

From the BBC

These are massive movements in the price of commodities – the raw materials that eventually feed, warm and transport us.
The extra movements this morning arose out of talk of an embargo on Russian oil. That is very significant, because Russia is the second biggest world exporter. Anyone passing a petrol station would have seen the impact. If there was an actual embargo, the price of an average tank could head close to £100, and indeed is already there at the most expensive service stations in the UK.
But we don’t need to be physically reliant on actual Russian supplies for it to feed through into the prices our suppliers pay and then pass on to us. The price for gas in international markets was already at incredible highs last week. It further increased by a third to frankly frightening levels, 10- to 15-times normal, above £6 per therm. If in the first half of this year these prices average £3.20, then typical dual fuel bills in October could rise to £3,000 a year or £250 a month.
Throw in record prices for wheat, for which Ukraine and Russia are significant world suppliers, especially to developing countries, and 30-year highs in inflation of 7% could end up closer to 8%, 9% or even 10%. It may be 1,500 miles away, but the economic shockwaves from this invasion and from intensifying sanctions will hit home.

 

Yup the most expensive fuel station today in town was 169.9 (£1.70 a litre) which would mean it will cost me £68 ($89) to fill my 40 litre car! 
I had already started to try and combine journey’s but now I’m thinking about really cutting back on the ‘unnecessary’.  
Turned my electric heating off at the weekend and will ride out the rest of ‘winter’ with blankets and the wood stove.
Now I’m starting to think about what I can reasonably grow at home, potatoes, garlic and salad leaves come to mind – I’m not a good gardener but I’ve had some success with these in the past.

 

I was out yesterday and the liquid foliar feed (phostrogen) I normally buy for the plant pot garden has almost tripled in price! I normally buy a box big enough to last the season for about £2.00, yesterday it was was £4.99 I haven’t even looked at growmore for the garden yet, not sure I want to, however it needs doing, so I’ll compare to blood, fish and bone and make a decision. I need some seaweed meal as well to improve the soil. *sigh* it’s going to be an expensive year.

I’ve started adding pulses, oil and flour on alternating weeks shopping. Plan is to have double the usual store by the end of May. I’ve also found an excellent recipe for seitan that makes a passable meat alternative, so will add more Vital Wheat Gluten and Chickpea flour to make it. I think meat will start to get very expensive towards Christmas.

Not forgetting the Cat, I am adding to his store cupboard too. 

 

I have heard of people making bone meal from chicken carcasses! I’ve never tried this myself but the process seems to be Roast the chicken and eat it, boil the bones to make stock, then remove the bones and grind them in a blender for use in the garden. 

 

Well, as I suspected Growmore is not a budget friendly fertiliser this year. I found Chicken manure pellets for not too much money and I have bit the bullet on the Phostrogen foliar feed. 

 

The world economy is an incredibly fine tuned and complex system. But it is self-organizing, IOW no one decides who makes what or how much. If things get even more sideways than they are, we have exactly no idea where the strain will exhibit. Because EVERYTHING comes from somewhere else and all the parts to produce those things are likewise shipped in. I think we are totally unprepared for the ramifications of an energy based transport shock on top of our already sprained and strained economy.

RU likewise exports large amounts of steel, copper, aluminum, prices on all of which are already running high. And let’s not even think about China—who, BTW, have been stocking up on grains for over a year. We should all take a hint.

At the outset of the 20 year war on terror, GWBush told the populace to help by “going shopping.” I’m telling you, your neighbors will not be happy when they come up against the reality of this situation should an embargo it last 6 months or longer. They’ve already worked up a lather over the inconvenience of wearing a mask, imagine how they’ll react to $8-10 unleaded and bread.

 

Word is the US congress is seriously considering and talking with EU about a russian oil ban. Unleaded here is a few cents from record territory and there are some oil contracts for May selling for $200/bbl.

Just a pin looking for a balloon.

 

The problem I see is that if more people put in woodburners then surely the price of wood fuel, wood pellets etc will also go through the roof.  So unless you have your own trees, I think the single most important thing one can do is to spend money insulating your home to make it more energy and thermally efficient. 

We are in the process of getting a small porch built onto the front of the house to help insulate the front entrance and the next thing is to put a lean-to greenhouse/sun room on the back for the same reason. We are also looking at insulation board for the interior of the outside walls. I’m also making heavier curtains and we are fitting thermal blinds to the windows, despite them being double glazed. We have already increased insulation in loft and when the flooring is changed later this year we will add thermal underlay. Adding all this internal insulation is less than half the cost of a woodburner and fitting and is a passive way to save energy. Our aim is to stop heat going out and cold coming in. 

We’ve got enough of a solar set up to produce enough energy for lighting and charging small items, so if it came to it we could reduce our electricity consumption to just the heating pump, cooking and the fridge/freezer. Our gas heating system will use far less once the insulation is in place. 

I gave up my car a while ago and I discovered during lockdown that I can manage well enough with shopping in the town that I can walk to. For the foreseeable future I won’t be travelling regularly other than work and I car share there. 

 

We as a family go scavenging timber be it in dumpsters or public woodland, Last year we assembled roughly two cords of firewood in one season. was quite chuffed to say the least.

 

When I had a woodburner some years ago in a previous house we would do the same. I can’t help thinking that sooner or later firms will realise the value of their disposable wood and start saving and selling it, especially with more people looking for a ‘free’ fuel source. Not trying to be negative, just realistic. 

 

When scavenging you most likely will come across painted, stained, or chemical treated lumber. Sure it will burn, but also the toxic chemicals that are infused into the wood. Do you collect these pieces too or just wait for the wood that you know will burn cleanly?

 

Good stuff Jenny! The very best, most cost effective weatherization is air sealing. Caulk at every trim piece joint even interior walls, trim and wall penetration. It is cheap, quick and gives immediate benefit. Ditto leaky windows, use plastic wrap to make them double and triple glazed and caulk or striping where appropriate. Air infiltration is the biggie.

Unless your home has no insulation at all I would forego adding wall insulation until you have dual glazed low-e windows, it just won’t pay. The insulated curtains are great though. 

You’re right about wood, eventually it will get burned even here where it is pretty woody. But there is only so much one can do to an older home, we’ve replaced all the windows, added about R-7 to the wall interiors and R-30 in the attic and gone through countless caulk tubes and foam cans. Our gas bill last month was about the same in $ as the year previous although our use was not quite half

 

While browsing through the news, I read this article that says that by deploying insulation in homes and electric heat pumps, the UK will be able to reduce demand for gas by 4% by 2027. Which is the same amount of gas that the UK imports from Russia. 

https://www.businessgreen.com/news/4046244/study-insulation-heat-pumps-deliver-uk-energy-security-quickly-domestic-gas-fields

So it is true, insulate and make your home more efficient to reduce the need for energy.

 

UK media now warning of a DYSTOPIAN future ?

Triple whammy for our household bills: Warnings over ‘dystopian’ effects of cost of living as Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine sends prices of heating, petrol and even wheat soaring
Wholesale cost of gas surged by 70 per cent and energy bills could hit £4,000
Price hit 800p a therm at one point, 1,900 per cent higher than a year ago
Official cap on bills is to rise to almost £2,000 a year from April 1
And petrol prices have hit a record high of 155.62p a litre with diesel at 161.28p