UK media saying war by Wednesday

Bill Masen - February 12, 2022

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Many UK media sources believe its going to kick off this week between Ukraine, Russia and Nato, the Daily Mail is saying WAR on wednesday.   They report the costs of grain, animal feeds,natural gas, petrolium and diesel will go through the roof.

Internet may get jammed by military level hacking

and

GPS systems may be disrupted.

I would also redirect you to the thread about products made from oil and gas to see the likely impact on most of our daily essentials.

I’m filling all my fuel containers and treating it with Sta-bil,  increased food stocks to the tune of £300 worth, stocked up on firewood, medical supplies and stored water.

I’m an old dude so I can opinion on this but this reminds me of the darkest days of the Cold War.

If it goes off who knows how it could spiral.

16  

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/russia-ukraine-war-putin-oil-gas-prices-energy

 

It wasn’t until all of this Russia and Ukraine business that I got a small sense of what it might have felt like during the Cold War. The uncertainty is pretty nerve wracking if you let your mind dwell on it and worry. I hope that things don’t escalate further, but I like your mentality of doing what you can to stock up and prepare against the changes that a possible war might bring.

 

It was not a good time, with east versus west slugging it out across the globe fighting assorted proxy wars with navies hunting each other 24/7  or airforces constantly looking for gaps through the other sides air defence. We had spooks and fifth columnists bumping off their opposite numbers in places like prague or london.

1970 1980 if you hear war birds on full afterburning going hell for leather out over the North sea, or see a Vulcan bomber @ 100 ft or a B52 Buff @ 40,000 ft your heart missed a beat.

1990, 2000, 2010   if you hear war birds on full afterburning going hell for leather out over the north sea, you grabbed your camera to catch the spectacle.

2020 we are back to 1970 1980

 

Damn Russia is claiming it has targetted a US sub INSIDE Russian territorial waters over in the kiril isles, and ordered it to surface and leave.  Russian government demanding answers from the US govt.

 

US trying to be all sneaky…

Link to article: https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-navy/2022/02/12/russians-claim-they-chased-us-sub-out-of-their-waters/

Oh, and I saw that Biden had a telephone call with Putin today. I would have LOVED to hear that conversation. I wonder what was said and what the outcome was. 

 

Found an article talking about the telephone call. 

In summary: the call was “professional and substantive” but produced “no fundamental change in the dynamic that has been unfolding now for several weeks,” 

It remains unclear whether Putin has made a final decision to move forward with military action.

Biden says that invading Ukraine would cause “widespread human suffering” and that the West was committed to diplomacy to end the crisis but “equally prepared for other scenarios,”

“decisively and impose swift and severe costs” if the Kremlin attacked its neighbor

 

I am a nobody at foreign affairs but in the US many of us think this is a purposeful diversion from the disastrous first year of the Biden administration. Midterm elections are 8 months away and the administration is looking at a significant rout. Blocking Nord Stream 2 is the political class’ real goal but the average voter could not care less about the pipeline – so what to do?

Politicians have ginned up wars to deflect from failing domestic politics for many years and I don’t think this year will be any different. Ukraine/Russia is too convenient for the political class. The US endgame is to stop Nord Stream 2 and the cleaving of Europe from US economic dependency.

The Russians and Europeans know Nord Stream 2 will do more damage to Ukraine than a border skirmish and they will win the long game. And Nord Stream 2 has significant benefit to Europe, especially Germany.

Russia will take advantage of the US current weakness and long-lasting black eye from our Afghanistan disaster by moving closer to Iraq and Syria.

 

I mean absolutely no disrespect to my American friends, but I would point out that there is a very strongly held belief over here from many people, that almost every time the US faces major economic and political problems at home, that the USG response is to engineer a foreign boogyman and create a conflict overseas to divert public attention back home. 

Some UK media and journalists are saying NATO and the US has repeatedly told Russia that NATO would not expend eastwards towards the Russian border, only to renage on those promises.

They say how the US was (rightly) enraged when the soviets put missiles in Cuba and tried to expand the Soviet influence in central America, it nearly triggered WW3. But now NATO and the US are wanting to move NATO right up to the Russian border, and now Russia is alarmed as it remembers what happened in 1940.

BTW there is valid opinion as well that if NATO and the US get tangled up in Ukraine and fighting starts, some believe that Russias friend China will go after Taiwan and seize the South China seas, with some suggesting China may even go after the vast mineral wealth of Northern Australia.

 

Most UK media commentators appear to think that NATO is utterly divided over the Ukraine, Problem lies around German guilt over 2 world wars and the fact that Germany and France are now heavily reliant on russian oil and especially Natural gas.    Poland and the little Baltic states are standing firm as they think if Russia takes Ukraine that Estonia, Latvia etc and Poland will be next.  Hungary will fight but the sourthern NATO members would be very reluctant to get involved much whilst many of the Benelux countries are dithering.

 

Bill, no offense taken and I think most Americans would agree with you.

The comparison with the Cuban missle crisis is very apt and many Americans see it too. Ukraine simply isn’t important to Americans – most of us don’t know where it is 😉

Topping off supplies is always a good idea regardless whether the threat materializes or not. Prudence is a virtue and hope is not a plan.

Ukraine is not a threat to Russia.

Russia and China will focus on Iran, Iraq and Syria – the Caliphate – for the deep water ports on the Mediterranean. They will also focus on mining and trade routes in the Arctic.

Longer term, China is a threat to Russia for many reasons, especially because the Russian East has many minerals and is sparsely populated – a temptation for China to ‘move the border’.

 

The Ukraine is not a threat to Russia, but NATO would be. Putin wants to keep NATO at least a Ukraine-length away, and preferably get Romania, Bulgaria, etc, back out of NATO (which will probably not happen). I think if it could, NATO would love to accept the Ukr, and Ukr would love to be accepted. But that would mean missiles placed in the Ukr which could be used against Russia and then Nato would be obligated to participate to defend the Ukr if Russia attacked it. Decisive reasons for Russia to oppose it. 

 

The proposed pipeline from Israel to Europe would also be immensely beneficial to Europe and Egypt, and reduce massive reliance on Russia. I hope they both become operational.

 

Natos going to stay out of it, beyond sending weapons and supplies to the Ukraine. We are too. Russia is prepared for financial sanctions. Prices for fuel will go up even more everywhere, and Europe may have a hard time getting fuel for heating if both pipelines are prevented from operating. If it’s going to be tit for tat, our communications grids may be impacted. But it’s  not going to be WWIII.

 

Looks like it might be started.

twitter link

And Jon Stokes comments on twitter

market disruptions ahead 

 

Looks like it officially started.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/live-blog/ncna1288990