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Reply to: News roundup for Tue, Jun 8, 2021 Posted June 11, 2021

According to the CDC data (admittedly incomplete, but serving as a source of verifiable data), the chances of dying after getting a Covid vaccine is 0.0017% (link). Also according to the CDC, the chances of dying from complications related to pregnancy & childbirth is 0.0173% (link). It is reasonable to conclude that those truly risk-averse to the fatal consequences of an elective covid vaccine would be more risk-averse to the fatal consequences of elective reproduction, as it is ten times more fatal. With regard to myocarditis specifically, until the CDC deigns to give us mere mortals actual hard numbers, we can still find other sources. Using the numbers from The Times of Israel (link) the probability of myocarditis within 30 days of a covid vaccine is 0.0022%, or 0.0011% if you discount patients with preexisting conditions. This probability is for any severity of myocarditis. In that same article, there was 1 death linked to myocarditis (preexisting conditions not reported) in proximity of a covid vaccine, at a probability of 0.00002%. In other words, the probability of dying from any complication related to a covid vaccine in the US is 85x higher than the probability of an Israeli dying from myocarditis in proximity to receiving a covid vaccine, regardless of preexisting conditions. Further, the chances of an unvaccinated child in the US dying from covid-related (link) complications is 0.0011%. I’m sure better numbers will be published at some point, but these are what we have to draw our conclusions from right now. Being risk-averse requires doing math sometimes. For scale, the chance of being struck by lightning is 0.0002% (link).

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Reply to: News roundup for Tue, Jun 8, 2021 Posted June 11, 2021

According to the CDC data (admittedly incomplete, but serving as a source of verifiable data), the chances of dying after getting a Covid vaccine is 0.0017% (link). Also according to the CDC, the chances of dying from complications related to pregnancy & childbirth is 0.0173% (link). It is reasonable to conclude that those truly risk-averse to the fatal consequences of an elective covid vaccine would be more risk-averse to the fatal consequences of elective reproduction, as it is ten times more fatal. With regard to myocarditis specifically, until the CDC deigns to give us mere mortals actual hard numbers, we can still find other sources. Using the numbers from The Times of Israel (link) the probability of myocarditis within 30 days of a covid vaccine is 0.0022%, or 0.0011% if you discount patients with preexisting conditions. This probability is for any severity of myocarditis. In that same article, there was 1 death linked to myocarditis (preexisting conditions not reported) in proximity of a covid vaccine, at a probability of 0.00002%. In other words, the probability of dying from any complication related to a covid vaccine in the US is 85x higher than the probability of an Israeli dying from myocarditis in proximity to receiving a covid vaccine, regardless of preexisting conditions. Further, the chances of an unvaccinated child in the US dying from covid-related (link) complications is 0.0011%. I’m sure better numbers will be published at some point, but these are what we have to draw our conclusions from right now. Being risk-averse requires doing math sometimes. For scale, the chance of being struck by lightning is 0.0002% (link).